MLB’s wild-card series is a strange beast. If’s arguably more fair than the former wild-card setup, which featured a one-game playoff for the bottom two teams in the playoff barrel in each league. But the format of it – three games (at most) squeezed into three days, all at one ballpark – tends to lead to some weird bounces for the higher seeds, theoretically rewarded with homefield advantage for the first round.
Last season, three of the four visitors (including the Detroit Tigers in their trip to Houston) advanced to the Division Series. In 2023? Two of the visitors moved on, with one (the Diamondbacks) making it all the way to the World Series. And in 2022? Another trio of visitors rolled on, with the Phillies making it all the way to the Fall Classic. That’s eight of 12 low seeds – 66.7% – moving on in the three seasons of MLB’s 12-team playoff system .
So are we saying the Tigers have a chance in their road matchup with the Cleveland Guardians, which starts Tuesday, Sept. 30 (1:08 p.m., ESPN)? You know it. But don’t take our word for it – take … er, our other words for it, as six Free Press sports writers chime in with their picks for the Tigers’ best-of-three series in Cleveland.
Evan Petzold
The Guardians won 24 of their final 32 games, leading MLB with a 2.72 ERA. Before that stretch, the Guardians ranked 15th with a 3.97 ERA in their first 130 games. The pitching — especially the starting rotation — is bound to regress, and with one of the weakest offenses in baseball, that could crush the Guardians. Meanwhile, the Tigers boast the more balanced roster with the best pitcher in the world and a stronger offense, putting them in position to end the Guardians’ magical run. The pick: Tigers in 3.
Christian Romo
Sure, Detroit has Tarik Skubal and a stronger lineup (on paper, anyway), but the Tigers need someone other than Jahmai Jones to start hitting baseballs. Cleveland’s bullpen isn’t going to allow that to happen, delivering the final blow to Detroit’s season. The pick: Guardians in 3.
Jeff Seidel
First of all, you have Tarik Skubal on the mound for Game 1. Advantage, Tigers. Just as long as he doesn’t try to long-snap anything. All the pressure will flip to the Guardians. Then, in the deciding game, Casey Mize will pitch fantastic. Right-hander Troy Melton will be the X-factor out of the bullpen, bringing an electric arm and impressive cool. The pick: Tigers in 3.
Shawn Windsor
The season starters anew. A fresh start. There’s no pressure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Maybe it helps the Tigers. Maybe Tarik Skubal throws seven innings of shutout baseball and the bullpen holds it down and somewhere in the Tigers’ uneven (that’s being kind) lineup, a run is produced. The problem isn’t the pitching, it’s the middle of the order, and that the Guardians projected starters for the first two games — Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee — have shut down Detroit this season. Will Cleveland run out of magic? Will the Tigers rediscover theirs? Yes. The pick: Tigers in 3.
Carlos Monarrez
Cleveland is scorching hot, is playing at home and has owned the Tigers the past two weeks. The Tigers lack pitching but have just enough pop at the plate and good baserunning to score some timely runs in order to take one game. The pick: Guardians in 3.
Ryan Ford
The Guardians have the momentum and the Tigers have whatever the opposite of momentum is – no-mentum? – and yet? The Tigers also have Tarik Skubal – and his ridiculous 0.64 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 28 innings vs. the Guardians – going in Game 1. That’s a pretty good start at flipping momentum … or no-mentum, whatever. The pick: Tigers in 3.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Tigers vs Guardians playoff picks, predictions in MLB postseason 2025
