If the loss to Nebraska was frustrating and the defeat at USC was a lesson in razor-thin margins, then this week feels like the collective deep breath before the plunge. Northwestern sits at a familiar, nerve-wracking crossroads: 5-4, with one more win needed for bowl eligibility and a three-game gantlet that would test any team’s resolve.
Let’s be clear: the performance against USC, while containing bright spots, confirmed what we suspected. This is a team with a very clear identity and a defined ceiling. The offensive line and running game, led by the emergent Caleb Komolafe, are the engine. The defense is gritty but can be exposed by elite, speedy athletes. The game management from the sideline has, at times, been its own worst enemy.
The “could-have-been” of the Najee Story near-pick-six still makes me wince just thinking about it, and it will haunt this season’s highlight reel, but it also serves as the perfect metaphor for 2025. The Wildcats are consistently ever-so-close to turning a corner, only to be reminded of the work still to be done. We now know what this team is. The question is whether what they are is enough to get that elusive sixth win against a schedule that offers no favors.
Bracing for Impact
On paper, Michigan is a nightmare matchup. The Wolverines embody everything that has given NU trouble: a powerful rushing attack ranked ninth nationally and a dual-threat freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood who is growing more comfortable by the week.
David Braun isn’t wrong when he insists that Wrigley Field is a home game. But everyone knows it will feel like a neutral site at best, flooded with Maize and Blue. To win, Northwestern will need to play its most complete game of the season and hope Michigan has an off day.
To be fair, the Wolverines are not the invincible juggernaut of preseason projections. Markedly worse Purdue and Michigan State teams gave them a run for their money, and Michigan got whooped by USC the same way NU did. This is clearly a wounded team, but it is still an incredibly dangerous opponent.
The most significant loss is Justice Haynes, the nation’s leading rusher among Power Four conference teams at the time of his injury, who is “week-to-week” following foot surgery. The problem? Sophomore Jordan Marshall (185 yards, 3 TDs last week) has seamlessly picked up the slack.
The injuries run deeper. The defensive spine is compromised:
- Safety Rod Moore, a veteran leader, remains day-to-day.
- Key linebackers Jimmy Rolder (the team’s tackle leader before his injury) and pass-rush threat Jaishawn Barham have returned to practice, but their game readiness is a major question mark.
- On the offensive line, starting left tackle Evan Link is still rehabbing, leaving redshirt freshman Blake Frazier to start.
Yet, the talent gap remains vast. Michigan is built of four- and five-star recruits, even within its backup corps. Northwestern, for all its grit, is not. The idea of a straightforward “upset blueprint” is often a fan’s fantasy. So, what can we realistically look for?
Identity, Identity, Identity
Northwestern’s path to competitiveness has been clear: a strong offensive line, a workhorse back in Komolafe and a ball-control offense. The ‘Cats rank 17th nationally in time of possession (32:19), a testament to their grinding style.
The passing game, however, remains a rollercoaster. SMU transfer Preston Stone (1,522 yards, 11 TDs, 9 INTs) was efficient against USC, but conservative play-calling prevented that efficiency from mattering. His primary weapon is fellow transfer Griffin Wilde, but Stone’s mechanics can break down under pressure, leading to the poor decisions that have resulted in nine interceptions. Yes, he did not throw a pick in a surprisingly efficient USC game, but it is hard to translate that into moving the needle when play-calling is conservative.
This identity, which is designed to beat teams in a grind, is now facing a Michigan team built to overwhelm in that very same fight with superior talent at nearly every position.
The Respectable Path
Given the disparity, the “path to victory” is less a tactical checklist and more a measure of competitive pride.
- Impose Your Will. Can Komolafe and the offensive line assert their identity? Rushing for 115+ yards against this Michigan front, even in a loss, would be a testament to the unit’s quality and a positive sign for the final two winnable games.
- Eliminate the Demoralizer. Michigan will look to make big plays. The key is preventing the back-breaking, 55-yard touchdown run or the 70-yard flea-flicker that ends the game by halftime. The defense must tackle better. Forcing field goals in the red zone would be a small victory.
- Coach with Nothing to Lose. The conservative punt on fourth-and-3 against USC cannot happen. In a game where they are heavy underdogs, the Wildcats must play like they have nothing to lose. That means going for it on fourth-and-manageable, using timeouts wisely, and sending a message of aggression. The team has shown fight, but the staff must match it with fearless decision-making.
So What?
Northwestern is 5-4. The goal is still bowl eligibility. For most rational observers, that sixth win was never going to come against USC, and it is highly unlikely against No. 18 Michigan. This game is about weathering the storm.
A “successful” Saturday is one where the Wildcats are competitive into the second half, where their core strengths don’t completely falter against elite competition and where they emerge healthy and without a catastrophic blow to their confidence.
The Wildcats are facing a superior opponent, and the season was always going to be defined by what happens in the subsequent games against Minnesota and Illinois. This week is about proving that the gap, while vast, doesn’t define their fight.
The goal isn’t to prove they’re better than Michigan. Instead, it’s to prove they belong on the same field long enough to carry their confidence into the winnable games ahead.
