Bold predictions are fun to make, and even more fun to look back on after a season.
Last October, a day before the Thunder’s season-opener at Denver, I made 10 bold predictions for the 2024-25 season. As I wrote then, “bold predictions have to be things that make you say ‘yeah right’ upon hearing them, but five minutes later you’re talking yourself into them.”
Let’s see how I did.
1. This will be the best Thunder team ever
We’re on the board!
Obviously the championship sealed this, but I based my prediction off net rating. The best Thunder team prior to this season was the 2012-13 squad, which had a 9.9 net rating — outscoring opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions.
The 2024-25 Thunder had a 12.7 net rating.
Spoiler alert: This may or may not have been the only correct prediction I made.
Bold predictions: (1 for 1)
2. Chet Holmgren will join SGA as an All-Star
Holmgren sure looked like an All-Star in his first 10 games, but then a broken hip sidelined him for the next three months.
Instead of Holmgren, it was Jalen Williams who joined Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as an All-Star.
Might the Thunder have three All-Stars next season? I don’t think that would even qualify as a bold prediction.
(1 for 2)
3. Isaiah Hartenstein starts fewer than seven games
Maybe my biggest whiff on a list full of them. Hartenstein started in 53 of his 57 games played.
I wouldn’t have made this prediction had I known Holmgren would miss 40% of the season, but even when Holmgren returned, the two bigs regularly started alongside each other. I thought Hartenstein would be a backup center who occasionally got a spot start. For what it’s worth, I still think the Thunder is at its best with Holmgren as the lone big on the floor.
We saw Thunder coach Mark Daigneault swap Hartenstein for Cason Wallace in the starting lineup in Games 1 through 3 of the Finals before going back to Hartenstein to close the series.
I’m not convinced Hartenstein will be a full-time starter next season — a prediction that almost ensures he will.
(1 for 3)
4. Mark Daigneault gets glasses
This was tongue-in-cheek. Daigneault kept squinting. The Thunder kept winning.
Maybe he really does have the vision of a red-tailed hawk.
(1 for 4)
5. Thunder’s 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts will flip 10 spots
This one requires a bit of explaining.
The Thunder in 2023-24 led the NBA in 3-point accuracy (38.9%) while ranking 16th in 3-point attempts per game (34.2).
“This season, the Thunder will rank no better than 11th in 3-point percentage and no lower than sixth in 3-point attempts,” I wrote.
The Thunder indeed shot worse from 3 (37.4%) but still ranked sixth in that category. And the Thunder did attempt more 3s per game (38.8), but that only raised OKC from 16th in the NBA to 10th in attempts.
So while I was on the right track, I predicted too drastic of a flip.
(1 for 5)
6. Chet Holmgren will be Thunder’s second-leading scorer
He was not. Holmgren was third with 15.0 points per game behind J-Dub (21.6) and SGA (32.7).
The gap between Holmgren and Williams was twice as big as the gap between Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins, the Thunder’s fourth-highest scorer (12.0).
(1 for 6)
7. Alex Caruso will lead the Thunder in 3-point percentage
Obviously, I meant to say that Caruso would lead the Thunder in 3-point percentage in the playoffs — tying Isaiah Joe among Thunder rotational players at 41.1%.
Regular-season Caruso was not so hot from 3-point range (35.3%). That, after shooting a career-high 40.8% in his last season with the Bulls.
Joe and Lu Dort were the only two Thunder players to shoot north of 40% from deep in the regular season. They tied for the team lead at 41.2%.
(1 for 7)
8. Thunder doesn’t lose a home game until 2025
In other words, I predicted OKC to go undefeated at home for the first two months of the season.
The Thunder lost a pair of November home games one week apart to the Warriors and Mavericks.
OKC finished with a home record of 35-6.
(1 for 8)
9. Neither Dillon Jones nor Ajay Mitchell plays in more than 20 games
Jones played in 54 and Mitchell in 36 (a number that would’ve been much higher if not for a toe injury that cost Mitchell more than half the season.
Where are the minutes??? That was my rationale here. I should’ve known better. Daigneault always finds minutes for young guys to develop. The Thunder doesn’t park prospects with the G League Blue for long stretches.
Mitchell, a second-round guard, was way better than I expected. Jones, whom the Thunder traded to the Wizards, mostly played in mop-up minutes.
(1 for 9)
10. Thunder loses to Nuggets in Western Conference Finals
The Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in the West semifinals before OKC made quick work of Minnesota in the conference finals.
Denver remains the biggest threat to OKC out West. The playoffs confirmed as much.
(1 of 10)
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jm*******@*******an.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Revisiting OKC Thunder bold predictions for 2024-25 NBA season
