Michigan State football opens its season on Friday, Aug. 29, against Western Michigan and we’re looking ahead to the first game of Year 2 under Jonathan Smith.
Fast facts
Matchup: Michigan State (5-7, 3-6 Big Ten in 2024) vs. WMU (6-7, 5-3 Mid-American Conference in 2024)
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).
Line:Spartans by 21.
Injury report
MSU
Out: K Martin Connington (undisclosed). Doubtful: S Nikai Martinez (undisclosed). Questionable: LS Kaden Schickel (left leg), K Tarik Ahmetbasic (undisclosed), RB Jace Clarizio (calf). Probable: TE Jack Velling (lower left leg).
WMU
Out: RB Cole Cabana (undisclosed), DB Jordan Thomas (undisclosed). Probable: RB Jalen Buckley (undisclosed).
Scouting report
When MSU has the ball: The Spartans hope to get returning starting QB Aidan Chiles going early this season by providing him with more weapons in the passing game and producing far better on the ground than last year’s 115.3 yards per game that ranked 110th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Brian Lindgren’s offense was 110th overall at just 333.4 total yards, with 218.1 a game coming through the air, and posted just 19.3 points to rank 123rd out of 133 teams. How the offensive line performs will be among the most pivotal first-game questions that needs answered, with transfers Matt Gulbin at center expected to lead the way in a reconfigured group that returns Stanton Ramil at left tackle and welcomes back guards Kristian Phillips and Gavin Broscious from season-ending injuries at guard, along with starting right tackle Ashton Lepo. They are pivotal to both protecting Chiles and opening up holes for the QB, as well as untested running backs Brandon Tullis and Makhi Frazier. The key for Chiles is to continue to minimize the turnovers like he did late in his first season as a starter. All 11 of his interceptions came in the first nine games, and the junior also fumbled four times while completing 59% of his passes for 2,415 yards with 13 touchdowns and running 97 times for 225 yards and three more scores. The Broncos made wholesale changes to a defense that gave up 192.5 rushing yards a game (112th) and 415.1 total yards (109th) a year ago that led to 31.3 points for opponents (107th). Of WMU’s 33 transfers, 15 arrived on the defensive side.
When WMU has the ball: Last season, even though MSU got demolished by better competition, first-year coordinator Joe Rossi’s defense performed admirably and delivered marked improvement over the Mel Tucker era meltdown. The Spartans ranked 34th in total defense (332 yards) and 32nd against the run (125.1 yards) despite allowing 26.1 points a game to rank 77th nationally. MSU struggled to generate takeaways and sacks as it failed to get off the field on third down more than 44% of the time, all of which have been offseason priorities. A deep and experienced group of defensive tackles will be relied upon to collapse the pocket to help an overhauled defensive end spot to try and improve upon the 19 sacks that were tied for 111th in the FBS. Behind them, Rossi reworked a secondary that ranked 46th at 206.9 passing yards allowed but got decimated by injuries throughout the season. Keep an eye on freshman cornerback Ayden West, whose name popped late in camp, to join transfer Josh Eaton and returning starter Chance Rucker, who suffered a season-ending injury at Maryland in the Spartans’ second game a year ago. Martinez, who is doubtful, will eventually join his fellow returning safety Malik Spencer in the middle of the secondary and also will be critical, though MSU plans to rotate at defensive back and linebacker frequently. In his first year at WMU last season, former Indiana and Maryland coordinator Walt Bell led an offense that averaged 370 yards a game (85th) and 28.9 points (tied for 55th).
Know the foe
QB combo: Bell brought sophomore Broc Lowry with him last year from the Hoosiers, and the quarterback showed to be a strong runner (129 yards and three TDs) but did little through the air (4-for-8 for 21 yards) in 11 games. WMU added California junior college transfer Brady Jones, who threw for 4,456 yards and 44 touchdowns with only eight interceptions last season. Taylor said he plans to rotate the two to give MSU different looks. They’ll be backed by returning running back Buckley, who is expected to shoulder the load Friday with Michigan transfer Cole Cabana out with an injury. Buckley averaged 68.3 of WMU’s 183 yards a game (37th-best team in FBS) but boasted a 5.34 per-carry average to get his 683 yards and three touchdowns.
Great unknown: Taylor also remade his defense by hiring Chris O’Leary away from the Los Angeles Chargers of the NFL, even though he has never been a coordinator at any level. O’Leary coached safeties under former U-M coach Jim Harbaugh last year after six years coaching Notre Dame’s defensive backs under Marcus Freeman. Not having any tape of what an O’Leary defense might look like complicates things for the Spartans, who want to erase last year’s mighty red zone struggles (75.7%, 115th in FBS) immediately.
Third-and-Lance: Taylor knew O’Leary from their time with the Irish, where the third-year WMU coach handled the running backs for three seasons before his first offensive coordinator job at Louisville in 2022. The former Alabama walk-on wide receiver was part of Nick Saban’s first Crimson Tide staff as a graduate assistant from 2007-08 before going on to spend six seasons coaching in the NFL ahead of his time in South Bend.
Two cents
Last-man standing: When the two teams take the field, there will only be one player out there who played for Mark Dantonio – and it’s WMU safety Tate Hallock. Hallock, who transferred to WMU from MSU before last season after four seasons with the Spartans, is the Broncos’ leading returnee on defense with 84 tackles (five of them for a loss), four interceptions and five pass breakups. Hallock, son of former MSU Rose Bowl winner Ty Hallock, played in four games on special teams for Dantonio in 2019, then sparingly for Tucker from 2020-22. He had five tackles and a forced fumble in his 18 games as a Spartan and earned an advertising management degree in December 2022.
Been a minute: MSU is 15-2 all-time in the series and 14-2 in East Lansing against the Broncos. The last time the Spartans lost came in 1917. However, among the last eight meetings since 2003, four of them have been close going into the second half before MSU pulled away. That included the Spartans’ 35-13 win in 2022 that required two fourth-quarter touchdowns.
Prediction
MSU 38, WMU 10: Once they get a gauge on O’Leary’s plan, the Spartans’ offensive line sets the tone by punishing the Broncos in the trenches to get Frazier and Tullis running room. That allows Chiles to use his full cadre of weapons, including transfer Omari Kelly, and the defense shows growth by making life miserable all night for both WMU quarterbacks.
Contact Chris Solari: cs*****@*******ss.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football prediction vs Western Michigan
