Fantasy Football: It all comes full circle — biggest lessons we've learned over the offseason

Full-circle moments are one of my favorite storytelling structures in movies. The opening sequence will give us a perspective on the film itself or the characters introduced. Mostly, we’re left to assume. But then, chaos will ensue, and we’ll see more plotlines woven into the fabric of our understanding. Ultimately, we land back at our starting point. But with a new point of view.

Flicks like Pulp Fiction and Edge of Tomorrow nail the concept. We see how the people in the main story arc develop and change, which in turn shifts how everything turns out. And critically, we can’t appreciate the growth without following the events in between.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]

We’re coming full circle on the offseason. The end of last season and the NFL draft started our thoughts on what 2025 would be. Preseason action has adjusted some of our expectations. But before you rush into your drafts with only a few weeks of context, let’s review some of the biggest lessons from the offseason and make sure you’ve got the full story.

Remove the name

Summer is the time for hot takes to percolate. There are no stakes involved. They’re (educated) hunches with a dash of vibes thrown on top. And, as we learn more, the (informed) guesses have a glimmer of reality. Accordingly, the market re-aligns. However, the most important aspect to remember before paying the new cost for a player isn’t having their name on your roster, but rather the value of their workload.

There’s no better example than TreVeyon Henderson’s meteoric rise through the preseason.

Simply put, nothing’s changed about Henderson’s situation. He still earned second-round draft capital, but has Rhamondre Stevenson to contend with for touches. New England’s offensive line is still a work in progress (Drake Maye saw pressure on 33.3% of his dropbacks). But Henderson’s skills with the ball in his hands are hard to miss. His highlights have pushed him into the third and fourth rounds of drafts. Typically, I’d balk at the price hike. Except, I thought through his projected touchshare.

Let’s say Henderson and Rhamondre split the carries. I’ll even defer to the vet, leaving the rookie with 45% of the carries. New England has already displayed Henderson’s talents as a pass-catcher. And not just as a check-down option, but also deployed on the perimeter. In an offense without a dearth of high-end WR talent, 10%-15% target share is in play. Henderson earned a 7.5% share on a college offense featuring Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Coincidentally, I can find three RBs with a similar usage profile from just last year alone to set expectations for Henderson in Year 1:

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 43.6% (Rushing Share), 11.3% (Target Share), RB2 (in PPR PPG)

• De’Von Achane: 38.8%, 16.0%, RB6

• Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 46.8%, 9.6%, RB21 (when healthy)

Remember, I’m not even factoring in the potential for the former Buckeye to take over the backfield. Or outplay any of the receivers as his rapport with Maye grows. And still, the profile justifies the cost. We can’t find the same athletic talent and offensive situations later in the draft.

However, in some situations, we can.

The case for Christian McCaffrey is simple. When he’s healthy, there are few with better odds to finish as the top RB. However, the risk of sinking a mid-first-round pick into the 29-year-old rusher is an idea most drafters will consider. But again, remove the name and compare utilization rates. Here, we can find a cheaper option with equal paths to a top-end result.

• Rushing Rate: 68.3% (McCaffrey), 80.0% (Chase Brown)

• Target Share: 18.2%, 12.9%

Chase Brown already has a stranglehold on the carries and has Joe Burrow’s trust as a receiver. And like McCaffrey, Brown’s projected usage can make any draft strategy work. But critically, when assessing options like these, it’s less about the name and more about the workload that’ll bring value to your roster.

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge from draft day to the playoffs]

You must react

We tend to evaluate personnel moves or adjustments in terms of how they affect the player. If it’s a trade, their fit within the offense becomes key. A contract extension expresses confidence in continued production (depending on the length). However, we skip over the fallout. The downstream effects are harder to discern.

Except with Dallas — we should’ve reacted sooner.

Determining George Pickens’ role within the Cowboys’ passing game was a simple exercise. He’s averaged no less than 13 air yards per target since entering the league. Dallas hasn’t deployed a WR in the same manner and produced an effective campaign since Michael Gallup in 2019. Jalen Tolbert is the only other non-CeeDee Lamb WR. The corresponding (and quick) reaction of moving Pickens into the sixth round was reasonable. However, our realization of how adding a WR2 like Pickens to a QB like Dak Prescott should’ve happened just as fast.

Prescott’s return from injury was a fair concern. But without any reported setback, and consistent highlights of him and Pickens (or Lamb) connecting for big plays, the path to a top-eight finish was clear. We’d only have to go back to his last full season (with Gallup on the decline) to gauge what’s in the realm of possible with Prescott healthy.

• Dropbacks per Game (2023): 38.6, 8th (out of 29 qualifying QBs – min. 320 dropbacks)

• Passing Success Rate: 50.1%, 5th

• Fantasy PPG: 20.2, 4th

In that same season with then-OC Brian Schottenheimer (now the head coach), Dallas ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation. Essentially, Prescott threw the ball more often in situations where a run would’ve been the optimal call. And he did it efficiently. Now, with better receiving options (including a freshly-extended TE), Prescott’s fringe top-12 draft cost didn’t jibe with the hype for his primary pass-catchers.

But he’s not the only one whose situation didn’t match their price tag.

I’ve been talking about Jaylen Waddle’s potential to re-enter the top 10 since I rejoined the crew here at Yahoo. Jonnu Smith is gone. Miami called more pass plays relative to expectations when Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve. Plus, we’ve seen HC Mike McDaniel concentrate the aerial attack on Waddle and Tyreek Hill before.

With Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to play the “sacrificial X-receiver” role, the Dolphins’ WR2 can move to the interior and face lesser coverage. Regardless, as each clue is given to us by the team (and we’ll get more once the season starts), we should adjust our outlook for each player impacted so that we can make the best decisions during our drafts.

Veterans still exist

I’ll riff off of my first point about removing player names when determining who to draft.

Excitement drives interest. Henderson’s kick return was a huge play. Couple that with the lack of actual football to watch in recent months, and it’s no wonder he earned a price bump. We watched him play. He performed well. His cost goes up. But there’s a group of players we don’t see much of that can boast comparable workloads: Veterans.

Players like James Conner fall into the “boring” category of RBs. In short, we know what we’re getting. It’s not to say it’s not valuable. Conner has been the RB13 and RB14 in PPR PPG the last two years. Even better, he hasn’t shown any significant signs of slowing down. Arizona’s RB1 ranked first in forced missed tackle rate and eighth in adjusted yards after contact. With a 10.5% target share, Conner already is what we’re projecting Henderson to be. But I’ll let you guess which rusher has the earlier ADP.

Isiah Pacheco has the same vibe.

Admittedly, “boring” and “stumbling headfirst into a wall at full speed” aren’t synonymous. But the former descriptor is keeping Pacheco in the sixth round. Meanwhile, in 2023, he operated like a top-12 rusher.

• Rushing Share (in 2023): 61.9%, 4th (out of 27 qualifying RBs – min. 30.0% team rushing share)

• Target Share: 9.9%, T-13th

His projected opportunity within the offense hasn’t changed. But our interest in the unknown (i.e., rookies) pushes known quantities down the board. Not every draft pick will elicit a reaction from your leaguemates. It’s OK to get the boring guys. However, it’ll be those same players with productive workloads who’ll help you win a championship.