MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — I’m concerned about the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa-to-Tyreek Hill passing combination, and, by association, the Dolphins offense. Soon, you’ll be concerned, too, as you realize the Dolphins must spend the next week forcing the Tua-to-Tyreek chemistry in preparation for the Sept. 7 season opener at Indianapolis. This is a perilous situation for the offense.
The last time Dolphins quarterback Tagovailoa and wide receiver Hill were on the field together against an opponent was almost nine months ago, the Dec. 22 game against San Francisco, a 29-17 Dolphins win. Hill had three receptions for 29 yards, highlighted by a 24-yard reception. He was targeted seven times. Those aren’t the numbers of a sharp combination.
Their previous appearance together was the 20-12 loss at Houston, the game in which Tagovailoa threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter while targeting Hill. After the game, Hill, who ended with two receptions for 36 yards after being targeted seven times, complained that he didn’t have enough practice time with Tagovailoa. That situation has only gotten worse.
You’ll recall Tagovailoa, valued for his accuracy and anticipation, missed the final two games last season — Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets — with a hip injury. And Hill, valued for his speed and the fear he imparts on defenses, missed most of organized team activities, minicamp, training camp, joint practices and preseason games while recovering from right wrist surgery and an oblique injury.
On top of all that, if you listen to Tagovailoa, his relationship with Hill has been a bit strained since Hill’s infamous “I’m out” postgame rant after last season’s finale against the Jets.
I’m having trouble seeing how the Dolphins can rely on the Tua-to-Tyreek passing combination to defeat the Colts. Opponents have increasingly shutting them down. The Tua-to-Tyreek combo only produced two 100-yard receiving games last season — Sept. 8 against Jacksonville and Dec. 8 against the Jets — and they were against teams that combined for nine wins.
You’ve seen this Dolphins offense without Hill the past few weeks in joint practices and preseason games. It’s harmless.
It’s heavy on the Tua-to-wide receiver Jaylen Waddle combination and light on the fear factor.
Opponents don’t defend against the threat of a touchdown on every play the way they do when Hill is on the field.
Coach Mike McDaniel has spun that realization into an alternative truth.
“You always want a player like that on the field,” he said of Hill, “but there is an unintended consequence of being able to be more versatile in your game and to focus intentionally on various things that we otherwise wouldn’t.”
OK, let’s look at that offensive versatility, which I maintain doesn’t exist at a game-winning level.
The run game has been disjointed because starting running back De’Von Achane has been sidelined recently with a calf injury and Alexander Mattison, who was set to be RB2, sustained a season-ending neck injury. That left rookie running back Ollie Gordon II, the sixth-round pick, on the fast track to develop.
Further hurting the run game, right tackle Austin Jackson hasn’t had contact through joint practices and preseason games due to a lower extremity injury.
Drilling down on the passing game, tight end Darren Waller, who is supposed to replace Pro Bowl tight end Jonnu Smith, hasn’t had contact since he retired in 2024. He hasn’t even participated in a full practice despite being acquired weeks before training camp.
The Dolphins badly need the Tua-to-Hill combo to be explosive.
Tagovailoa makes this offense go, but Hill makes it special.
Ask backup quarterback Zach Wilson what Hill does to a defense. He’ll tell you safeties normally play maybe 10 or 12 yards deep. But when Hill is on the field they’re 16 or 18 yards deep.
“Everyone starts to play a little bit softer,” Wilson said. “Corners play off a little more. Safety plays a little bit deeper.”
Wilson will further tell you when Hill is on the field “it does open up everyone else” because Hill requires attention from multiple defenders.
Hill is unique. He makes the implausible become realistic.
“In single high coverage,” Wilson began, “you’re always normally taught never to throw deep third across the middle because there’s a safety back there and his job is to play deep. Normally it’s quarters coverage. But with Hill, I’ve noticed he is still running past deep third players, which is not normally a thing.”
You know the numbers for the Dolphins offense with Hill. In the past two years the Dolphins are 11-0 when Hill has 100 or more yards and 7-16 (.304) when he has 99 or fewer.
I’m thinking the Colts game will be one of those in which Hill has 99 or fewer. Again, Hill has had almost no practice time with Tagovailoa in the last nine months or so. And because of that, I’m concerned about the Dolphins offense against Indianapolis.
____
