Jul. 13—The roar of the crowd on a warm July night. The eager glances of onlooking teammates. The tension as one of the greatest sluggers on the planet steps into the batter’s box awaiting the pitch from his batting coach, or in the case of Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, his father.
There is nothing quite like Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby.
Mariners fans have spent the past weeks anticipating Raleigh’s arrival at Truist Park in Atlanta on Monday night as he attempts to become the first catcher and the first switch-hitter to hoist the derby trophy.
In an era where All-Star game festivities have become increasingly dull, the chatter surrounding this year’s derby is as prevalent as ever. Surprisingly, the reason for this is the M’s fifth-year catcher from Cullowhee, North Carolina, whose career batting average is below .230.
Nobody could have predicted what Raleigh has done so far this season. While numbers are down for catchers leaguewide, Raleigh is producing at a rate that has never been seen.
Johnny Bench’s primary catcher record of 28 home runs before the 1970 All-Star Break was untouched for 55 years. Raleigh both tied and surpassed 28 on June 20, nearly four weeks before this year’s break. The next day, Raleigh became the first switch-hitter with 30 home runs before the break.
On July 8, Raleigh sent a missile into the second deck of the right field stands at Yankee Stadium, breaking derby legend Ken Griffey Jr.’s Mariners franchise record of 35 homers before the break.
Aside from breaking records within his organization, Raleigh is also approaching several all-time batting marks.
Raleigh is just 10 home runs shy of tying the record for single-season home runs hit by a primary catcher, likely to shatter the record of 48 homers set by Salvador Perez in 2021. He is on pace for the highest WAR among all catchers in history. Additionally, since 1924, the only player who outperformed Raleigh’s current pace for WAR was Barry Bonds in 2001.
Raleigh’s 38 home runs before the break is second to only Bonds. Bonds had 39 in 2001, finishing the season with 73. Though it will be difficult for Raleigh to surpass 73, he is currently on pace with the American League record, which belongs to Aaron Judge with 62 in 2022.
Given his slugging numbers, Raleigh’s decision to partake in the Home Run Derby seems like a no-brainer. However, there always seems to be controversy whenever a player declares for the derby amidst a breakout season. Some speculate that derby participants struggle in the season’s final 70 games.
“I can see where some guys would find a little bit of a slump. I think that maybe it could,” said Mike Clevinger, current pitcher for the Triple-A Charlotte Knights and one of the top pitchers in the American League throughout the late 2010s. “You’re taking so many reps just trying to get underneath and lift the ball. You just get so many reps that it might put a hitch in your swing for a little bit, but I mean they are pros.”
According to MLB.com, 43 out of 74 derby participants between 1999 and 2010 saw a decrease in their production after the All-Star break.
A 2010 study conducted by the Society for American Baseball Research analyzed the first and second halves for each of the Home Run Derby participants from 1985 to 2009.
For seasons where these players did participate, the average OPS dropped by 43 points, and the home run percentage decreased by nearly 1%. In seasons they did not participate in the derby, their OPS and home run percentage increased in the second half. This difference is the clearest indication that the home run derby can lead to a second-half slump.
Ryan Fobes, hitting coach for George Fox University in Newberg, Oregon, compared the approach one has during the derby to being a “5 o’clock hitter,” or someone who puts on a show for batting practice. He says the balanced hitters have a “7 o’clock hitter” mindset.
“You need to be a well-balanced hitter,” Fobes said. “You have to be able to hit the ball to all fields. You have to be able to understand when you are in an advantage count versus a disadvantage count.”
Both Clevinger and Fobes said that the impact that participating in the derby has on a player depends on the type of hitter they are. It has less impact on the mechanics for the prototypical power hitters since their swing plane is already focused on launch angle and exit velocity.
Between 2017-19, each Home Run Derby had a participant whose OPS dropped by 200 points or more in the second half of the season. While that is only considering one of the eight participants, 200 points is enough of a significant decrease for players to question participating in the derby.
In 2005, Chicago White Sox outfielder Bobby Abreu hit 41 home runs in the derby and had a significant post-derby decline. Abreu’s batting average dropped by 47 points and his OPS dropped by nearly 200 points. He only hit six home runs compared to 18 in the first half. The only offensive statistic that increased from Abreu’s first to second half were negative — strikeouts and caught stealing.
Clevinger says the speculation that derby participants are fatigued in the second half is an exaggeration. In fact, Clevinger believes the amount of practice swings that pro hitters take before games is close to, if not higher than the number of swings they take for derby preparation. He referenced his former teammate Jose Ramirez as an example that the derby does not directly cause slumps.
“I think for most hitters in today’s game, that’s kind of their swing in general anyways,” Clevinger said. “You go out and watch batting practice; it almost looks like a home run derby these days.”
The group of derby participants who slump later in the season does not exclude the top performers of the derby. The runner-up in both 2022 and 2023 saw a significant decline in their second-half performances. In 2022, Trey Mancini saw a 100-point decrease in his batting average from the first to the second half.
In 2023, Randy Arozarena, the Mariner with the second-most extra-base hits this season, struggled in the second half after narrowly losing the derby to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Prior . Arozarena was batting .279 with 16 home runs, then two weeks after partaking in the derby, his OBP dropped 27 points. He only hit seven home runs with a .220 batting average in the second half, which was partially the reason that Tampa Bay was willing to discard him at the 2024 trade deadline.
Players go into slumps following the derby for a variety of reasons. Their swing may impacted by weeks of training to hit as many home runs as possible, or facing many soft toss reps to change their approach, particularly against off-speed pitches.
“I think they get away from their competitive mechanics in order to lift the ball more and pull the ball more,” Fobes said. “Guys that they put in the Home Run Derby that aren’t necessarily the big home run hitters, I can see how that could definitely affect their swing mechanics and potentially cause a dip in their offensive numbers in the second half.”
Liam Bradford’s ‘s reporting was funded by Comma’s First Amendment Club.